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SK Beveren cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Beveren beat Francs Borains 0-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.94 xG and SK Beveren 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.76 / defence 0.74 against SK Beveren attack 1.45 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 26% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 47%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 53%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. SK Beveren (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights