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Shock result as Olympic Charleroi defy the odds to beat Francs Borains 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Olympic Charleroi beat Francs Borains 0-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.51 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.79 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.63 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 51% | Draw 32% | Olympic Charleroi 17%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Olympic Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 46%, Olympic Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Francs Borains arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.27. Form was overturned, with Olympic Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights