🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Francs Borains at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus Olympic Charleroi in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Robert Urbain, Francs Borains have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Francs Borains are significantly better at Stade Robert Urbain than their overall form suggests.

Olympic Charleroi (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympic Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Francs Borains's favour (1.00 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading Data

Francs Borains goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 46% versus Olympic Charleroi 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 46% | Olympic Charleroi 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.51 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.994 / defence 0.900 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.626 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.406. Data: 40 Francs Borains games / 11 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 51% | Draw 32% | Olympic Charleroi 17%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Olympic Charleroi 5.88. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 40% | Olympic Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights