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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Francs Borains run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kortrijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Francs Borains beat Kortrijk 4-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 31, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.90 xG and Kortrijk 0.72 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.68 / defence 0.77 against Kortrijk attack 0.68 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 38% | Draw 35% | Kortrijk 28%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, Kortrijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights