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Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat Francs Borains 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat Francs Borains 0-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 17, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.09 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 0.83 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.73 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 41% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 27%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 57%, K. Lierse S.K. 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Francs Borains's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.09 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights