Francs Borains 1-3 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Francs Borains and Beerschot VA meet at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 December 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Francs Borains (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Francs Borains are significantly better at Stade Robert Urbain than their overall form suggests.
Beerschot VA's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 1.50 PPG clear of Francs Borains in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Francs Borains lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 27% versus Beerschot VA 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 40% | Beerschot VA 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.69 xG and Beerschot VA 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.784 / defence 0.979 | Beerschot VA attack 1.031 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.449. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beerschot VA's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Francs Borains games / 37 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 18% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 56%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Beerschot VA 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 29% | Beerschot VA 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 18% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Francs Borains 0.69 / Beerschot VA 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.784 / def 0.979 | Beerschot VA attack 1.031 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Beerschot VA xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Francs Borains 1 - 3 Beerschot VA.
Where is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA part of?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 18% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Francs Borains and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Record (1 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (1.03x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 15/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
18%
5.69
27%
3.75
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.15
1.46
Beerschot VA xG
5.69
18%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
4%
24.58
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 17.0 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.46 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 4W 1D 10L from 15 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 4L across 15 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Francs Borains heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Francs Borains are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 6W 0D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.57 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.93 PPG overall record — Beerschot VA travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.60 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Francs Borains have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Beerschot VA in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.43 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 2.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beerschot VA have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beerschot VA won 4-1 on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Francs Borains
0
Draws
4
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 29%, Beerschot VA 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Francs Borains) and 57% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 57% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Francs Borains's recent games and 57% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Francs Borains 1-3 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.69 xG and Beerschot VA 1.46 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beerschot VA outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.78 / defence 0.98 against Beerschot VA attack 1.03 / defence 0.79, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 18% | Draw 27% | Beerschot VA 56%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 40%, Beerschot VA 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.