Beerschot VA 1-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beerschot VA face RSC Anderlecht II.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beerschot VA welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Olympisch Stadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.80 (RSC Anderlecht II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Beerschot VA have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2023, ended Beerschot VA 3–1 RSC Anderlecht II — a Beerschot VA win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus RSC Anderlecht II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 56% | RSC Anderlecht II 62%). Note also that RSC Anderlecht II surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Beerschot VA recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 1.080 / defence 0.880 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.172 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.445. Data: built from Beerschot VA's last 38 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 38.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 29% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 45%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.42 | Draw 3.89 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.22. RSC Anderlecht II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beerschot VA 60% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 29% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Beerschot VA 1.15 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 1.080 / def 0.880 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.172 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.49
RSC Anderlecht II xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 12 January 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA 1 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 29% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 1.08x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beerschot VA's last 38 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.89
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.64
1.49
RSC Anderlecht II xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.49 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 6D 17L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 15W 15D 18L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Beerschot VA are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RSC Anderlecht II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 11W 5D 7L from their last 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.48 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 62%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
Beerschot VA (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 25W 6D 17L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.39 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Beerschot VA have won 6, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: RSC Anderlecht II 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 48%, RSC Anderlecht II 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beerschot VA) and 61% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Beerschot VA's games and 65% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 61% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 70% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.15 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.49 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 29% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 45%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 56%, RSC Anderlecht II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.