Dender vs Francs Borains Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Dender at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dender face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Francs Borains meet at Dender Football Complex in Challenger Pro League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Dender (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Dender have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Francs Borains's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Dender against 1.80 for Francs Borains. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Dender, 1 for Francs Borains and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2026, ended Dender 0–1 Francs Borains — a Francs Borains win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Dender half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus Francs Borains 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 56% | Francs Borains 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.58 xG and Francs Borains 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.920 / defence 0.734 | Francs Borains attack 0.734 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.331. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Dender have a tight defence (rating 0.734), which is pulling Francs Borains's projected output down. Data: built from Dender's last 10 games and Francs Borains's last 41.
Result probabilities: Dender 58% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 17%. Fair-value odds: Dender 1.72 | Draw 3.99 | Francs Borains 5.96. The model has a clear lean to Dender (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dender 50% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 58% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Dender 1.58 / Francs Borains 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.920 / def 0.734 | Francs Borains attack 0.734 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Dender (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Dender xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Francs Borains xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does Dender vs Francs Borains kick off?
Dender vs Francs Borains is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Dender Football Complex.
Where is Dender vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Francs Borains part of?
Dender vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 58% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dender and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Dender vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.92) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.73x) against Dender's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 10 games and Francs Borains's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.99
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Dender xG
Total xG
2.30
0.72
Francs Borains xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
3%
29.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dender and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dender and 0.72 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dender come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 11D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (15W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Dender against 1.29 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dender's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across their last 20 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 3D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Dender are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
Dender (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Francs Borains away?
Dender's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.20 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Dender or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Dender and Francs Borains, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won Francs Borains 0-3 Dender on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Dender
0
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Francs Borains?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 2, Francs Borains have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2026: Francs Borains 1-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Francs Borains?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 60%, Francs Borains 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dender and 60% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Francs Borains in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Francs Borains matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dender's recent matches and 45% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dender and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dender's matches and 60% of Francs Borains's.
Do Dender and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dender's recent matches and 70% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.