Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beerschot VA (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beerschot VA face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KRC Genk II (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Beerschot VA. A 1.40 PPG lead over KRC Genk II (2.40 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beerschot VA register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, KRC Genk II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Beerschot VA, who have won 6 of the last 6 meetings against KRC Genk II — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Beerschot VA winning.
The historical record gives Beerschot VA a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 56% versus KRC Genk II 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 58% | KRC Genk II 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 2.85 xG and KRC Genk II 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 1.576 / defence 0.846 | KRC Genk II attack 0.936 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.339. Beerschot VA carry an above-average attack strength of 1.576 — their λ of 2.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Beerschot VA games / 41 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 74% | Draw 14% | KRC Genk II 11%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 1.35 | Draw 7.14 | KRC Genk II 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.85 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.91 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 70% | KRC Genk II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 74% | Draw 14% | KRC Genk II 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 62% | xG Beerschot VA 2.85 / KRC Genk II 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 1.576 / def 0.846 | KRC Genk II attack 0.936 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.85
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.06
KRC Genk II xG
62%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
Where is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II part of?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 74% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Record (6 meetings): Beerschot VA 6W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (1.58) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.94x) against Beerschot VA's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
74%
1.35
14%
6.90
11%
8.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.85
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
3.91
1.06
KRC Genk II xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.90
14%
Draw
8.89
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
6%
17.29
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
1%
153.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.06 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 26W 6D 9L from 41 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 19L across 41 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 14W 3D 4L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.34 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 63%.
Defensively: Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 26W 6D 9L in their last 41 games (2.05 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or KRC Genk II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 2.14 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Beerschot VA, 71% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Beerschot VA and 71% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beerschot VA's games and 71% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beerschot VA's matches and 71% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.