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Shock result as K. Lierse S.K. defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.62 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.14 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 48% | Draw 25% | K. Lierse S.K. 27%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual K. Lierse S.K. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 59%, K. Lierse S.K. 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.28 PPG, K. Lierse S.K. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights