Away Win Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted away win probability — Thursday 28 September 2023
Away wins are statistically rarer and often carry better odds. Our prediction model calculates each team's true ability independent of venue, meaning high away win probabilities reflect a genuinely superior away side — not just a weak home team. Only fixtures with 30%+ away win probability are listed.
14 matches cleared our threshold on Thursday 28 September 2023. Orgryte IS vs Gais led the list at 68% in the Superettan. The shortlist runs from 68% down to 31%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans seven different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 14 fixtures on this list that have since finished, seven landed the away win market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Superettan · Sweden
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
La Liga · Spain
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Super League 1 · Greece
Serie A · Italy
Serie A · Italy
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
La Liga · Spain
Super League · Switzerland
Serie A · Italy
Superettan · Sweden
Showing top 14 fixtures by away win probability (≥ 30%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Away Win — common questions
What does the Away Win market mean?
Away Win settles on whether a match is won by the away side. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate away win probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The away win probability shown here is the sum of every scoreline where the away side finishes ahead. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Away Win on Thursday 28 September 2023?
14 fixtures met the criteria, led by Orgryte IS vs Gais at 68% away win probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 30% or higher away win probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these away win predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.