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WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Wolfsberger AC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.09 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights