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WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat TSV Hartberg 4-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.40 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights