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TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 1-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.21 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 36% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights