WSG Wattens 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for WSG Wattens, 1.00 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 46% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 47% | TSV Hartberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.21 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.722 / defence 1.071 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 36% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 30% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 36% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG WSG Wattens 1.21 / TSV Hartberg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.722 / def 1.071 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 36% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.83x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
36%
2.78
35%
2.87
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.27
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.07 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 11W 13D 31L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 18W 15D 22L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (5W 9D 13L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 13D 31L in their last 55 games (0.84 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.89 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 41%, TSV Hartberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (WSG Wattens) and 63% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 48% of games; TSV Hartberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 63% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 1-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.21 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.72 / defence 1.07 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 36% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.