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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

WSG Wattens have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for WSG Wattens, 1.00 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 46% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 47% | TSV Hartberg 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.21 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.722 / defence 1.071 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 36% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 30% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.

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