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Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Sturm Graz 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.33 xG and Sturm Graz 1.73 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Sturm Graz attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 47%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights