WSG Wattens 0-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tivoli Stadion Tirol. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–4 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 45% versus Sturm Graz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 47% | Sturm Graz 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 0.82 xG and Sturm Graz 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.631 / defence 0.805 | Sturm Graz attack 1.183 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.153. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 WSG Wattens games / 37 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 41%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Sturm Graz 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 20% | Sturm Graz 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG WSG Wattens 0.82 / Sturm Graz 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.631 / def 0.805 | Sturm Graz attack 1.183 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 0 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 27% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Record (6 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.63x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
27%
3.75
32%
3.11
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
1.92
1.10
Sturm Graz xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.10 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 11W 9D 27L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 29W 13D 5L from 47 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 13W 8D 2L from 23 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.98 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 9D 27L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 29W 13D 5L in their last 47 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.96 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.04 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 44%, Sturm Graz 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (WSG Wattens) and 61% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of WSG Wattens's games and 70% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 61% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 0-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 0.82 xG and Sturm Graz 1.10 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.63 / defence 0.81 against Sturm Graz attack 1.18 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 27% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 41%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, Sturm Graz 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.