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WSG Wattens and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 20, as WSG Wattens and Ried drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.52 xG and Ried 1.00 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 26% | Ried 25%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, Ried 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Ried's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.26 PPG, Ried 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights