WSG Wattens 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Red Bull Salzburg travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.
Red Bull Salzburg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (WSG Wattens) versus 1.40 (Red Bull Salzburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for WSG Wattens.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with WSG Wattens winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 62% and Red Bull Salzburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.25 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.973 / defence 0.982 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.093 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 0.956. Data: 24 WSG Wattens games / 24 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 28%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG WSG Wattens 1.25 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.973 / def 0.982 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.093 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.468 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Red Bull Salzburg xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
WSG Wattens 0 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 39% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (9 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 2 | Red Bull Salzburg 6W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
39%
2.56
33%
3.03
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.27
1.03
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.03 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 11D 13L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.21 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.71 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Red Bull Salzburg in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.59 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 71%, Red Bull Salzburg at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (WSG Wattens) and 53% (Red Bull Salzburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of WSG Wattens's games and 76% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 0-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.25 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 33% | Red Bull Salzburg 28%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 50%, Red Bull Salzburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.21 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.