🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 13, as WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.34 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.45 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.22 / defence 1.03 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 40%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 51%, Rapid Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights