WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna – Match Report

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Stalemate at WSG Wattens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 14, as WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 0.84 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.86 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Rapid Vienna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.67 / defence 0.89 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 32% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 47%, Rapid Vienna 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights