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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as WSG Wattens take on Rapid Vienna.

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Match Analysis

WSG Wattens host Rapid Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tivoli Stadion Tirol. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rapid Vienna — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Rapid Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rapid Vienna have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

WSG Wattens trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Rapid Vienna trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 47% versus Rapid Vienna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 47% | Rapid Vienna 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 0.84 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.672 / defence 0.886 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.883 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.098. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 WSG Wattens games / 35 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 32% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Rapid Vienna 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — WSG Wattens's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 30% | Rapid Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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