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Dominant Grazer AK run riot with a 1-5 hammering of WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat WSG Wattens 1-5 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.51 xG and Grazer AK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Grazer AK outscored their 0.86 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Grazer AK attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 21%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Grazer AK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 51%, Grazer AK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.11 PPG, Grazer AK 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights