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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz finished level at 1-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.37 xG and FC BW Linz 0.88 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against FC BW Linz attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, FC BW Linz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.11 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights