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Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 35%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 59%, TSV Hartberg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.73 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights