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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz finished level at 2-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 62%, Sturm Graz 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.54 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights