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Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Sturm Graz 3-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.49 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sturm Graz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Sturm Graz attack 1.24 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 53%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights