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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach finished level at 1-1 at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.49 xG and SCR Altach 1.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 62%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

SCR Altach's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights