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Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 5-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.69 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 22%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 54%, Rapid Vienna 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.47 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights