🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.

Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Wolfsberger AC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Rapid Vienna's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 2W, Rapid Vienna 2W, 2D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 53% versus Rapid Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 54% | Rapid Vienna 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.69 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.040 / defence 0.987 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.925 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 22%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Rapid Vienna 4.55. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights