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Prediction vindicated as Wolfsberger AC edge out Grazer AK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Grazer AK 1-0 at Lavanttal-Arena, Relegation Group - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.62 xG and Grazer AK 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grazer AK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Grazer AK attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 24%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 60%, Grazer AK 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Grazer AK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights