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Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out WSG Wattens 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 3-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 31%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 56%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights