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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens encounter.

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Full Analysis

PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

TSV Hartberg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

WSG Wattens's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in TSV Hartberg's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across 7 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 3–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus WSG Wattens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 56% | WSG Wattens 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.872 / defence 1.059 | WSG Wattens attack 0.994 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | WSG Wattens 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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