🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ried.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Ried 2-0 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.76 xG and Ried 1.32 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ried landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Ried attack 1.03 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 48% | Draw 23% | Ried 29%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, Ried 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (13 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Ried's trading profile (13 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.46 PPG, Ried 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights