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Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 43%, Red Bull Salzburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.39 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights