TSV Hartberg 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.50 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–5 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

TSV Hartberg trading profile (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 61% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.922 / defence 0.955 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.799 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. Data: 35 TSV Hartberg games / 34 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Red Bull Salzburg 4.76. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 5.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%.

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