SCR Altach 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Sturm Graz.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for SCR Altach.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.

It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Sturm Graz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | Sturm Graz 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.02 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.797 / defence 1.135 | Sturm Graz attack 1.293 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 SCR Altach games / 36 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 24% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 50%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Sturm Graz 80% BTTS from recent games.

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