🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 27, as TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.90 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rapid Vienna outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 42% | Draw 31% | Rapid Vienna 27%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Rapid Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.34 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights