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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.18 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 47%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 49%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.35 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights