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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.90 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Rapid Vienna and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Rapid Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 49% | Rapid Vienna 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.18 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.944 / defence 1.062 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.085 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.442. Data: 26 TSV Hartberg games / 26 Rapid Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 2.13. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Rapid Vienna 90% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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