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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 58%, Rapid Vienna 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.27 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights