🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 1-5 hammering of TSV Hartberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 1-5 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Lask Linz 1.13 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.13 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Lask Linz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lask Linz's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG, Lask Linz 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights