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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Lask Linz attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 30% | Lask Linz 34%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 48%, Lask Linz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.38 PPG, Lask Linz 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights