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Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out Grazer AK 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 1-0 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG and Grazer AK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grazer AK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Grazer AK attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 46% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 27%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 47%, Grazer AK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Grazer AK's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights