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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.75 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Austria Vienna attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 49%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 46%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (43 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with TSV Hartberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights