TSV Hartberg 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg at Stadion Hartberg this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.50 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that Austria Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (43 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Austria Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.973 / defence 0.997 | Austria Vienna attack 1.232 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.427. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 TSV Hartberg games / 33 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 49%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Vienna 2.04. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.25 / Austria Vienna 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.973 / def 0.997 | Austria Vienna attack 1.232 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Austria Vienna xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 27% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
27%
3.64
23%
4.26
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.01
1.75
Austria Vienna xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
17%
5.76
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
5%
20.98
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.75 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 15D 14L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.77 PPG from 43 outings (23W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.94 points per game from 18 outings (11W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.44 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 15D 14L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.33 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 67%, Austria Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of TSV Hartberg's games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.75 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Austria Vienna attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 49%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 46%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (43 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with TSV Hartberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.