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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 2-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.62 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.28 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights