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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.

Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.00 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Klagenfurt and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Klagenfurt 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Klagenfurt 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.62 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / defence 1.077 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.757 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Klagenfurt 5.00. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 30%.

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