TSV Hartberg 2-3 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.00 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Klagenfurt and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Klagenfurt 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Klagenfurt 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.62 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / defence 1.077 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.757 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Klagenfurt 5.00. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | Austria Klagenfurt 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.62 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / def 1.077 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.757 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Austria Klagenfurt xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 3 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 50% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (8 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 4 | Austria Klagenfurt 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.29
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.60
0.98
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
25.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.98 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 18W 15D 21L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.28 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.15 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 15D 21L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.37 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (TSV Hartberg) and 52% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 41% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 2-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.62 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.28 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.