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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 18, as TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.98 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.77 / defence 1.44, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights